Vulnerability of the Small-Scale Fishery to Climate Changes in the Northern-Central Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean Sea)

Climate change is altering the functioning of ecosystems and species distribution worldwide, with negative impacts on human activities, including fisheries. The Adriatic Sea an extremely productive area for fisheries, due to strong outflow nutrients from rivers periodic mixing Mediterranean. However, also a semi-closed basin, where do not have ability move higher latitudes avoid warming waters. acts biodiversity in variety ways, such as causing changes trophic network—favoring intake thermophilic alien species, often competition local species—and biological cycles acclimatized marine temperate–cold climates. These problems become critical factors survival fisheries relying these resources. Within this context, estimates possible modifications nektonic community near future could be quite useful preparing adaptation plans. In paper, using Maximum Entropy models under RCP 4.5 8.5 scenarios, we estimated habitat suitability set different thermal affinity (e.g., cold, temperate warm species) within GSA17 (Northern Central Sea), among most productive—and exploited—areas Mediterranean Sea. This study shows how, at current pace, climate modify extent that will decrease nearly half considered, landings 13.5 86.9%, depending scenario. Only blue crab Callinectes sapidus has increase been observed. For temperature was important variable explain probability relative presence GSA17. On other hand, climatic conditions tested scenarios suitable environment tropical which find here habitat, least terms features. Results present can help management fishery resources markets future, providing information predict composition aquatic draw up plans take into account effects change.